analysis

Good Morning Treasury! - January 31, 2025

Markets, economy

US stock markets rose on Thursday. Among the major stock indices, the Dow Jones rose 0.38%, the S&P 500 0.53% and the Nasdaq 0.45%. Chinese stock markets are still closed, so we can only report on the Japanese Nikkei, which rose 0.28%. In Europe, the DAX is up 0.41%, the CAC is up 0.88% and the FTSE is up 1.04%. In Hungary, the BUX rose 0.3%, OTP rose 0.96%, Mol rose 1.05%, while Richter fell 1.45% and Magyar Telekom declined 1.53%.

EURUSD

In the first half of the day, the dollar strengthened, with the EURUSD weakening to near the 1.0390 level. However, the ECB interest rate decision in the afternoon boosted the euro and the exchange rate shot up to 1.0450. However, post rate decision comments suggested that the ECB may cut rates less than planned this year. EURUSD ended the day around 1.0390.

EURHUF, USDHUF

The morning GDP data gave the first boost to yesterday's forint rally and then the ECB's interest rate decision sent EURHUF to a new level of 406.20, a level not seen for two months. By the end of the day, however, the strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the Hungarian currency and the EURHUF ended the day around 407. The forint also strengthened strongly against the dollar until the afternoon. However, after the daily high of 389, the dollar recovered and by the evening hours the exchange rate was back around 391.60.

Commodities

Oil prices rose. Brent Crude rose to $76.91 per barrel, up 0.20%, while WTI Crude rose to $73.10 per barrel, up 0.40%. Gold rose to $2,795.89, up a significant 1.50%.

Macro calendar

Today, no major data will be published.

Date

Data

Country

Period

Survey

Actual

Prior

2025.01.28

14:00

Central Bank Rate Decision

Hungary

Jan 28.

6,5%

6,5%

6,5%

2025.01.29

20:00

FOMC Rate Decision

USA

Jan 29.

4,5%

4,5%

4.5%

2025.01.30

08:30

GDP NSA YoY

Hungary

Q4

0,1%

0,4%

-0,8%

2025.01.30

14:15

ECB Deposit Facility Rate

Eurozone

Jan 30.

2,75%

2,75%

3,0%

2025.01.30

14:30

GDP

USA

Q4

2,6%

2,3%

3,1%

Good morning Treasury!